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            october 21, 2019

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Hong Kong's GDP to grow by 2 to 3pc in 2015


Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow by two to three per cent next year compared to 2014 with inflation forecast at four per cent, according to the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce.
The chamber attributed its modest forecast to sluggish global demand weighing on the external markets that govern the city state's economic performance, according to the chamber's economist David O'Rear.
"Poor demand in Europe and Japan, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the normalisation of monetary policy in the United States and a general slowing in the mainland will work to dampen what otherwise might be a year of recovery," said Mr O'Rear.
"The impact on retail sales, transport costs, tourism and consumer sentiment arising from the prolonged political protests are not expected to carry over into the new year," he said.
"The danger is that people develop a perception of Hong Kong as a place they should worry about, and that does no one any good," he said.
The General Chamber's Annual Business Prospects Survey points to continued slow growth and rising prices in 2015 and 2016. In both years, and by similar margins, a majority of respondents expect real GDP to rise two to four per cent and inflation to fall in the same range.
For 2015, 71.3 per cent of respondents anticipate continued moderate growth. The second largest group, at 20.9 per cent, just expects 0-1 per cent growth.
By a similar 68 per cent margin, respondents believe Hong Kong's competitiveness has deteriorated in the past year, a long-established trend in the Chamber's survey.
Topping the list of factors that will determine future competitiveness are longer term government planning (80.3 per cent rated this response either four or five on a scale of one-five), followed by the cost of doing business and quality of life (78.9 per cent), labour skills and availability (75.8 per cent) and political development and stability (75.5 per cent), according to Shipping Gazette.

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