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Indiaexportnews.com

Emerging markets enthusiasm tempered by ‘Crisis’ concern

  06.03.2019    

BAAR, Switzerland – March 4, 2019– The logistics industry sees emerging markets growing at a healthy 5% pace in 2019, but a surprising percentage of executives are bracing for a crisis amid U.S.-China trade friction, interest rate and currency volatility, and Brexit uncertainty.
In Agility’s annual survey of more than 500 supply chain industry professionals, 55.7% say a growth rate of 5% for developing economies is “about right.” Emerging markets expanded by 4.7% in 2018, and the International Monetary Fund now forecasts 4.5% expansion for 2019.
At the same time, 47.1% of logistics executives surveyed say an emerging markets crisis is “likely” or “highly likely.” Simmering tensions and tariffs could shave 10% off of U.S.-China trade volumes this year, the survey shows.
The survey is part of the 2019 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index, the company’s 10th annual snapshot of industry sentiment and ranking of the world’s 50 leading emerging markets. The Index is a broad gauge of countries’ competitiveness based on their international and domestic logistics strengths and business fundamentals.
“Companies looking for opportunity are finding it in emerging markets, where small and medium-sized enterprises with access to technology and mobile banking are increasingly driving growth,” says Essa Al-Saleh, CEO of Agility Global Integrated Logistics. “At the same time, logistics professionals worry that these markets are vulnerable to ripple effects from big geopolitical setbacks.”
The Index ranks 50 countries by factors that make them attractive to logistics providers, freight forwarders, shipping lines, air cargo carriers and distributors. The top 10 are: China, India, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Qatar, Turkey and Vietnam.
China, India and Indonesia rank highest for domestic logistics; China, India and Mexico are tops for international logistics; and UAE, Malaysia and Qatar have the best business fundamentals.
“Concerns about emerging markets in 2019 are valid, especially in countries with significant dollar-denominated debt, but as a group these markets are growing at roughly twice the rate of developed economies,” Agility’s Al-Saleh says. “What’s most heartening is that many now appear resilient enough to avoid the sort of contagion we saw spreading among emerging markets in 2013 and 2008.”
Transport Intelligence (Ti), a leading analysis and research firm for the logistics industry, compiled the Index.
John Manners-Bell, Chief Executive of Ti, says: “This year’s Index highlights the range of challenges and opportunities many markets face. The uncertainty which surrounds trading relationships, combined with implementation of new trade barriers, threatens to derail integration of emerging markets with the rest of the world. It is essential that obstructive trade policy does not stand in the way of commercial opportunities which help drive growth in emerging markets.”

About Agility
Agility is a global logistics company with $5.1 billion in annual revenue and 22,000+ employees in more than 100 countries. It is one of the world’s top freight forwarding and contract logistics providers, and a leader and investor in technology to enhance supply chain efficiency. Agility is a pioneer in emerging markets and one of the largest private owners and developers of warehousing and light industrial parks in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Agility’s subsidiary companies offer fuel logistics, airport services, commercial real estate and facilities management, customs digitization, and remote infrastructure services.


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