After several years of good market conditions, the worldwide demand for diesel locomotives is in for a downturn. In its multi-client study, SCI Verkehr isn’t expecting a recovery to be felt until 2012. But the procurement level of peak year 2008 won’t be reached until 2014.
At the same time, Chinese suppliers CNR and CSR are set to increase their exports, thus increasing in international importance.
The most important market for diesel locomotives now and in the future is Northern America. But a significant initial fall in sales figures similar to that being felt in all other regions is affecting this market as well. In the years following this initial phase, Northern America and the markets of Asia, CIS, Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe possess great growth potential whereas current sales figures for diesel-locomotive procurements in Western Europe will not be reached again in the next five years.
Overall the current market volume for worldwide new procurements of diesel locomotives is more than EUR 3.6 billion per year. Almost EUR 7.6 billion are invested in refurbishment and maintenance. In the years leading up to 2012, market volume is set to decrease initially. The most important driver forcing this development is the decrease in transport demand. The market’s rebound starting in 2012 will result in overall growth of the market. In the period 2009 to 2014, there will be average annual growth of 2% in the new vehicle segment.
The two North American diesel locomotive construction companies General Electric (GE) and EMD (formerly: General Motors) are the leading suppliers worldwide at the moment. They mainly produce for their domestic market but the same or similar products manufactured under licence can also be found in South America or Australia. Additionally, the Chinese companies CNR and CSR are among the group of international leading suppliers due to the fact that they have achieved success with exports of their products to the markets of South and Central America as well as Africa and the Middle East. Market leader in Western Europe is Vossloh Locomotives, while Transmashholding and Lugansk Teplovoz dominate the CIS market.
Alongside an examination of the global market differentiated by region, the study entitled “The world market for diesel locomotives” includes a comprehensive analysis of current fleets in terms of operational purpose, quantities and age structures in addition to future procurement potential. Furthermore, the study includes the current market shares and product information of the manufacturers, the drivers for the procurement and refurbishment of diesel locomotives as well as a forecast of future vehicle requirements in the individual regions. The annex to the study includes a list of all operators’ vehicle fleets.
Source: Railway Market CEE Review